the midst of this second wave of the case Ruby and the elections have reappeared at the next horizon, it's time to finally fulfill the promise of the last post and summarize the argument so far conducted on the nature of Berlusconi and the indications that we can derive from this analysis in regard to the choices that lie ahead opposition. We are at a crossroads with no return and we can choose the right path.
I argued (in post 17 and 24 October) that Berlusconi cultivates a proposed neo-authoritarian concentration of power, which is not compatible with democracy as such. I believe that this project has grown ever since he ascended in politics, even from before then.
The content of this design is summarized in a few words (see post 8 January) subject to government control all the power centers, institutional and extra-institutional, who are able to limit the public powers of 'the executive, judicial and media power in the first place.
I argued that the parable of Berlusconi is not the result of an occasional personal life lived to the limits of legality, but of a strategic design inspired by a clear conception of power and with a clear political line.
This policy is not center, but profoundly right (see 11/24 post). It 'not so right for choices in the economic or other spheres of political power, which, considering the current international framework, are mostly in accordance with conservative governments. E 'right, indeed the extreme right, for his guidance in the institutional, directed towards authoritarianism el'autocrazia in ways that are unmatched in the West and democracies in general. On this level the Berlusconi is not a peculiar form of conservatism, but a new form of extremism (post 18.12). A post-industrial extreme right that does not show the face of relentless male and autocracies of the early twentieth century, but the seductive and somewhat 'feminine fascination of television.
If the fascist propaganda was all geared towards the male side of the mind, cultivate violence and measures its success by the ability to recruit men, rather than Berlusconi favors the female side, it purports to condemn violence and includes among its requirements that to seduce women (already ...) that have since become electric.
On the other hand, if the fascist propaganda openly proclaimed his anti-democratic purposes, that Berlusconi is a master at hiding his fascination and based on deception.
The deception is essential to the mechanics of Berlusconi. The Berlusconi must pretend liberal because it is based on the collection of television electoral support which would otherwise be impossible. So he pretends to defend the rights of a citizen campaign against interception which is actually all aimed at defending the power of the law. Is passed to freedom of expression a private monopoly control on TV is actually a serious threat to the right to information. It is seeded with both hands hatred against the enemy, the "communists", the "justice-", the "judges" (and a few days ago, the television appearance of an unexpected middle-aged woman who declared excitedly: "The magistrates? I had my way they throw them away! ") And proclaims there is, ironically, the" party of love. " And so on.
At first glance, it seems that this deception has been a tremendous success and unpredictable. E 'succeed in getting the same opposition (at least in large part) that Berlusconi is indeed a "moderate", the PDL is really a strength "liberal", that extremism is a normal "right-wing" or even that Berlusconi does not has no political project and is devoted only to pursue his personal interests. This is certainly a formidable result.
But from another point of view, this deception has failed miserably, because it has achieved to date, its objectives. In sixteen years of battles, the Berlusconi failed to rein in the judiciary, has failed to stifle the information, failed to neutralize the constitutional court. Above all failed to win approval of a majority of Italians (after 18.11). If it is true that in Italy there is a "regime" is not there because Berlusconi has tried it is because, despite everything, did not succeed.
If there is a puzzle to be solved, this is not "Because the Italians contend Berlusconi." The Italians, in majority, do not support it (surprisingly, he recognized himself in video message on 28 January, when he said his coalition had "more than 45%" in the polls). Given the power and cunning of the media put in place, the consent of the large minority who became fascinated by Berlusconi needs no further explanation. If there is a miracle to explain, this is the exact opposite: that despite all the attempts of construction of this scheme is not yet, to date, went into port, that has not yet been able to build those conditions irremovability the power he has so doggedly pursued.
I believe that this failure must be attributed mainly to two factors, one of the legal-formal, the other a cultural one: the durability of constitutional guarantees and democratic sentiment of the country, often rooted in the best traditions of socialist and Catholic liberal. The first blocked the road to more subversive actions, the second has prevented more than recognize the new Man of Providence. We can not however give credit for this failure to response strategies of the opposition, which have proved very weak.
What has paralyzed the opposition was mainly a fundamental error analysis, carried out since the beginning of the parable and then tenaciously Berlusconi repeated to this day. This has been refusing to recognize the autocratic nature of Berlusconi's political project and therefore its intrinsic adverse to democracy, its inherent extremism. Despite its apparent descent from P2, despite warnings by the movements, intellectuals, groups of concerned citizens, despite the countless warnings originated from the rest of the world, has made every effort to accredit as a regular opponent of Berlusconi's center-right , to beat the field of concrete political decisions, practices, capacity for governance, looking in all the ways of mortal sin ' "Antiberlusconismo.
Rather than indict the entire political and institutional design Berlusconi, it was decided to wink at strengthening the executive, to negotiate constitutional changes, negotiated justice reforms, accept the idea that the "governance" should be privileged on representation, without realizing that they credited with a value that is at its maximum in the dictatorship.
But there's more: even when, as in the case of Di Pietro and Labor, has chosen the path of least opposition front, we preferred to ignore the existence of a political plan and has put in Close's character, his acts of lawlessness, his attention to his interests, his unpresentable private vices, his alleged inability to govern.
Of course I do not mean that acts of lawlessness should be ignored. Of course, should be reported and prosecuted in every way. But are not the essential aspect. Do not be mistaken for the cause of political Berlusconi, Travaglio as does, for they are rather the result, perhaps even indispensable. If the man had pursued his intentions even without committing a crime, would not have been less dangerous, it would have been even more.
regard to the alleged inability to rule, this is the weakest argument of all. If we look at the "practical things", economic policy, public finance, foreign policy, and even education policy, the difference between the orientations of the majority and the opposition (very clear on other levels) tends to fade into the mist. I intend to discuss in the future (perhaps before Christmas ...) the political viability and the government's foreign policy that still sits in office: I shall confine myself for the moment to anticipate that both, in my opinion, they saw, alongside many deleterious aspects, other positive choices, even in important matters (see post 6.11). It is on this ground that You can easily beat Berlusconi.
But let's immediate relevance. If Berlusconi is likely to fall today, not for its collection of past misdeeds, nor for his inability to govern, but for his private vices unpresentable. Just the most insignificant part of its history, compared to the historic significance of the drama that we live by creeping over sixteen years. I have already said the case is ironic, but also emblematic (post 2.11). What interests me here is the way out.
And in this moment the three possible ways out.
We can not exclude the possibility that Berlusconi will be able once again to overcome the crisis and remain in the saddle, and emerge strengthened even further. In this case, has already made it, he threw himself with renewed ardor in its program of subversive law: wiretapping, quick process, separation of career ... In a word, in the construction of the scheme. But it is the most likely hypothesis. Abandoned by the Catholic hierarchy, mocked by the whole world, beaten by the Constitutional Court, prosecuted by the law, the target of right-minded indignation, crutches in parliament by only two or three samples scilipotaggine, even downloaded from TG2, the beloved knight is unlikely to ford to pass this without drama. The
Second, where the transitional government leading the country to elections. Tremonti? Alfano? Read? It would be a way dangerous and full of unknowns. Would without Berlusconi Berlusconi to power, with the great general of the Sultan engaged in a duel to the death with Bossi, Casini, Fini, Bersani and so on, to negotiate a pre-established electoral law in favor of anyone who can come out winner an opaque and unpredictable, which could put in the attic any yearning for genuine popular sovereignty. It may happen that a bargaining between balanced forces produce a better result of the intentions of each: it was the case of the Republican Constitution. Would hardly be the case this juncture.
The hypothesis that seems most likely at present, is that you go to early elections with the same electoral law. This was, until recently, the ace up the sleeve of Silvio Berlusconi. Not any more. Before the Senate found that creaked. Then he realized that creaks even the Chamber. More precisely: Berlusconi may hope to win the House only if its opponents are divided, because only then could the prize catch of the majority once again turn his minority into a majority in parliamentary elections.
For once, there are those who understood. Bersani. Who declared in no uncertain terms that it intends to pursue an alliance of all opposition.
E 'an impossible task? Vendola said: "With ever Fini." Casini said: "With Vendola ever."
They are right. They are right when it comes to building "a government proposal seriously," a coalition of far-reaching that it should decide to build consensus on things ranging from Afghanistan to euthanasia, the metalworkers' contract funds to private schools, nuclear and municipal taxes, in other words, a government of course. It 'no use pretending that it is possible to find a consensus of this kind that goes, I say fine to Ferrari, but even from casino to Rosy Bindi.
But this is not to propose a government of course. This is to handle the final transition to another phase of republican history, a phase that is liberated from the nightmare of this extremism.
What I have to agree the opposition forces is the location of spill by Berlusconi and the return to normal ways of democracy. Much could be said about what this path may lead. For example, a new electoral law, fair and acceptable to all. For example, being allowed the smooth and orderly conduct of the trials against the premier. To example, that you put on the table the question of the media, both in the private monopoly control as public broadcasting. For example, it is rigorously adhered reinforced the independence of the judiciary. In other words, everything you need to guarantee the conditions of democracy, rule of law, political pluralism, separation of powers, the regularity of the electoral process and the formation of political consensus. Of course there are other choices be postponed to be done, for example, the line to take in respect of the financial markets and attack, always lurking, against Italy's sovereign debt. But the questions is can not be postponed more than possible to reach an agreement.
What matters is that the consensus that it is necessary at this time, to form an alliance to bury Mr Berlusconi should not and can not focus on 'political orientation, but on something higher and shared address constitutional, the foundations of democracy. It is to regain the conditions for a normal democratic process, and this, fortunately, is possible in a short space of time, provided there is clarity and agreement on objectives. After a right and a left normal and a level playing field will return to confront the choices of government.
The angry reaction and decomposed with which Berlusconi addressed the storm in case Ruby opens the way for a frontal collision. Up to now could be understood to follow a cautious moderation , now is the behavior of man he is dropping the mask, revealing his physiognomy pure autocrat. And 'this now must be put on trial.
Berlusconi does not need to leave because he is a pimp, not to go because "he does not want to rule" should not go because he is unable to do so. He must go because it attempted to build a system, tried to place himself and his power over any law or any rule, even any decency. This is the realization that it can and must unite now, all free men and women of this country.
The "spirit of CNL" which called last week Barbara Spinelli is far from impossible to arouse. As long as the opposition leaders will decide to do so. If they do, Berlusconi is lost.
POSTSCRIPT. Just when this post was almost ready to go out, I found it on sale the latest issue of Micromega, entitled "Berlusconi and fascism." The introductory essay by Paolo Flores D'Arcais with impressive grip follows the arguments in this blog, in the 10 theses of 2003 and the first LabDem section of this post. I will return to this essay and the volume in the near future. Maybe before Easter ...
Post postscript. It is worth comparing the second section of this post with the interview of D'Alema page. 11 La Repubblica today, I read only after the publication of the post.
Post postscript. It is worth comparing the second section of this post with the interview of D'Alema page. 11 La Repubblica today, I read only after the publication of the post.
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